Statistics often sounds like a dry subject, but sometimes it’s necessary to take a statistics course to get the correct answer to this problem. Take the following case for example: a football scout (球探）hears of a player who has powered his team to a good win-loss record. His coaches think he’s one of the most talented players they’ve seen. But the scout is unimpressed by the one practice game he sees him in; he tells his manager it’s not worth trying to recruit (录用）the player.
Most sports fans would think that was a pretty foolish decision, right? Athletic performance is much too variable to base an important judgment on such a small sample. But consider this problem: an employer gets an application from a junior executive (主管人员）with an excellent college record and strong references from his current employer. The employer interviews the applicant and is unimpressed. The employer tells his colleagues that it’s not worthwhile recruiting him.
Most people regard this as a reasonable sort of decision. But it isn’t. Countless studies show that the unstructured 30-minute interview is virtually worthless as a predictor of long-term performance by any criteria that have been examined.
In both cases, predictions based on references-school reports, prior performance, letters of recommendation-give a 65-75% chance of choosing the better of the two.
Why do we get the athletic problem right and the employment problem wrong? Because in the case of the job, unlike for athletic performance, we haven’t seen hundreds of candidates in interviews of a particular type and seen how well performance in the interview corresponds to ultimate (最终的）performance in the setting we’re concerned about. We haven’t seen that the guy who looks like a fool in the interview turns out to be clever on the job and the guy who does well in the interview turns out to be average. The only way to see that the interview isn’t going to be worth much is to be able to apply the “law of large numbers”，which assists the recognition that an interview represents a very small sample of behavior.
The bottom line: there’s safety in numbers. The more recommendations a person has, the more positive the outcome is likely to be for the employer. Consider the job interview: it’s not only a tiny sample, it’s not even a sample of job behavior but of something else entirely. Psychological theory and data show that we are incapable of treating the interview data as little more than unreliable gossip. It’s just too compelling (强迫性的）that we’ve learned a lot from those 30 minutes.
My recommendation is not to interview at all unless you’re going to develop an interview protocol (体系),with the help of a professional, which is based on careful analysis of what you are looking for in a job candidate. And then ask exactly the same questions of every candidate. It’s harder to develop such a protocol than you might guess. But it can really pay off.
1.The cases in the first two paragraphs are meant to_____.
A. illustrate the influence of fans
B. show the weaknesses of scouts
C. attach importance to interviews
D. introduce the topic of the passage
2.The author believes that ____.
A. the setting in the job interview is too artificial to be convincing
B. a successful candidate usually uses tricks to cover his real characters
C. a small sample is not enough to make a generalized judgement of a candidate
D. the number of candidates hasn’t satisfied the requirements for a job interview
3.What is the best title for the passage?
A. How employees are selected
B. Where statistics are available
C. Why job interviews are pointless
D. When recommendations are needed
When a driver slams on the brakes to avoid hitting a pedestrian crossing the road illegally, she is making a moral decision that shifts risk from the pedestrian to the people in the car. Self-driving cars might soon have to make such ethical (道德的)judgments on their own — but settling on a universal moral code for the vehicles could be a tough task, suggests a survey.
The largest ever survey of machine ethics, called the Moral Machine, laid out 13 possible situations in which someone’s death was unavoidable. Respondents were asked to choose who to spare in situations that involved a mix of variables: young or old, rich or poor, more people or fewer. Within 18 months, the online quiz had recorded 40 million decisions made by people from 233 countries and territories.
When the researchers analysed these answers, they found that the nations could be divided into three groups. One contains North America and several European nations where Christianity has been the dominant (占支配地位的)religion; another includes countries such as Japan, Indonesia and Pakistan, with strong Confucian or Islamic traditions. A third group consists of countries in Central and South America, such as Colombia and Brazil. The first group showed a stronger preference for sacrificing older lives to save younger ones than did the second group, for example.
The researchers also identified relationships between social and economic factors in a country. They found that people from relatively wealthy countries with strong institutions, such as Finland and Japan, more often chose to hit people who stepped into traffic illegally than did respondents in nations with weaker institutions, such as Nigeria or Pakistan.
People rarely face such moral dilemmas, and some cities question whether the possible situations posed in the online quiz are relevant to the ethical and practical questions surrounding driverless cars. But the researchers argue that the findings reveal cultural differences that governments and makers of self-driving cars must take into account if they want the vehicles to gain public acceptance.
At least Barbara Wege, who heads a group working on autonomous-vehicle ethics at Audi in Ingolstadt, Germany, says such studies are valuable. Wege argues that self-driving cars would cause fewer accidents, proportionally, than human drivers do each year—but that people might focus more on events involving robots.
Surveys such as the Moral Machine can help to begin public discussions about these unavoidable accidents that might develop trust. “We need to come up with a social consensus,” she says, “about which risks we are willing to take.”
1.Why is it difficult to set universal moral rules for programming self-driving cars?
A. Social values always change with the times.
B. Moral choices vary between different cultures.
C. Drivers have a preference for sacrificing the weak.
D. Car makers are faced with decisions of life or death.
2.The researchers conducted the study by_____.
A. using a massive online quiz worldwide
B. comparing different cultures and customs
C. dividing the respondents into three groups
D. performing a series of controlled experiments
3.According to the study, in which country are drivers more likely to hit a pedestrian crossing the road illegally?
A. Nigeria B. Colombia
C. Finland D. Indonesia
4.Barbara Wege would probably agree that _____.
A. Self-driving cars will greatly improve the traffic environment
B. Accidents caused by self-driving cars might receive more attention
C. Problems involving self-driving cars might shake the public trust in society
D. Car makers needn’t take the risk of solving self-driving car ethical dilemmas
Travelling with skiing or snowboarding equipment can be a bit of an effort, particularly if you’re swapping between buses, trains and planes. Take a simpler, more direct route to the four Alpine options on the Eurostar at London St. Pancras International or Ashford.
La Rosière | Sainte Foy |
Great ski conditions aren’t a one-off here, thanks to | The slopes are quiet, the lift queues non-existent, |
the resort’s high altitude and its mostly south- | and snowy forests and breathtaking mountain |
facing and therefore sunny-slopes. It’s a family | views dominate(控制）your eyeline. This resort is |
friendly resort and kids will enjoy skiing through | not a place to come if you like to party, but it’s a |
the trees and tunnels on adventure trail. | great choice for those who want to progress on |
| wide, empty pistes. |
Moûtiers | Tignes |
It is a good resort for first-time skiers. Those new | It may not be the prettiest resort in the French Alps, |
to the sport can book a holiday safe in the | but what it lacks in cuteness, it more than makes up |
knowledge that they’re not stuck up a snowy | for in convenience, taking the concept of ski-in ski- |
mountain if the sport isn’t for them. The town itself | out to a whole new level. Its high-quality snow |
has a Museum of Popular Traditions. | conditions are all but guaranteed. |
Need to know | |
You can take one pair of skis or one snowboard on board with you in addition to your standard adult | |
luggage allowance. For safety reasons, skis and snowboards have to be kept in a protective case that | |
covers the whole item. |
|
There’s a travel class to suit every budget and style. Though the seats are roomy and comfortable, it’s | |
worth nothing there are no sleeper bunk beds. With free Wi-Fi for all, you can stay connected all the way. |
1.If one is looking for a peaceful and crowd-free ski resort, he will probably choose_____.
A. La Rosière B. Sainte Foy
C. Moûtiers D. Tignes
2.From the passage, we can know that_________.
A. the Eurostar offers easy access to popular Alpine ski resorts.
B. there is no restriction on well-protected equipment on board.
C. travelers can have a good sleep on comfortable bunk beds on board
D. free Wi-Fi is provided on board for travellers who upgrade their travel class
When I was 13 years old, I stopped speaking. I’m still not exactly sure_________ 一 I think I felt that words got me into trouble. The boys in my class were always _________ me, telling me to shut up. One day, I_________ into uncontrollable sobs behind the sports hall.
So throughout my _________, I clammed up一dealing with the wider world only in whispers and shrugs. My
isolation(孤立）led to indescribable _________ that nothing could relieve. I couldn’t ________ or socialise. Then, at 15, a psychologist saw _______ in me—She said I was in intelligent but_______, and needed to change schools for a fresh start.
My parents sent me to a different comprehensive. I knew no one and I had the chance to _______ myself. Cheered by the psychologist’s _______ in me, I worked hard and became a swot(刻苦学习的人).As a result, my parents were _______. Finally at 20, I was referred to a psychiatrist and he diagnosed me with a mild form of autism(自闭症).It was such a(n)_______ to know what was happening that I cried on the bus on the way home.
It took a further five years to _______ again, a decision that was as much a surprise to me as it was to everyone else. I _______ myself hard, becoming more confident. Gradually, I _______ my speech. I definitely get more than usual pleasure from the use of ______ . It’s still such a fresh experience for me ______different words—ones that can sound so complex, and carry so much ______ .
When I think of what I have ______, I feel like crying, but I don’t ______ it up anymore. Instead, I enjoy talking about it.
1.A. when B. why C. how D. where
2.A. encouraging B. teasing C. ignoring D. praising
3.A. collapsed B. divided C. looked D. laughed
4.A. teens B. experiences C. education D. life
5.A. tiredness B. boredom C. loneliness D. guilt
6.A. wait B. sing C. mix D. move
7.A. potential B. weakness C. justice D. ambition
8.A. arbitrary B. innocent C. conventional D. insecure
9.A. entertain B. abandon C. comfort D. reinvent
10.A. interest B. faith C. investment D. patience
11.A. proud B. passive C. cautious D. curious
12.A. surprise B. embarrassment C. pity D. relief
13.A. complain B. connect C. study D. speak
14.A. struck B. drew N C. pushed D. rushed
15.A. put out B. built up C. looked through D. took down
16.A. language B. knowledge C. wisdom D. imagination
17.A. discovering B. underlining C. compiling D. creating
18.A. responsibility B. flexibility C. emotion D. depression
19.A. held on to B. looked forward to C. stayed away from D. missed out on
20.A. sum B. bottle C. think D. polish
—What a mess! You’re always throwing things about.
—Don’t be ____, Mum. I will tidy it up now.
A. hot under the collar B. on cloud nine
C. off the top of your head D. down in the dumps
—-What difference will it make _____we shall go to the concert on Tuesday or Saturday?
—They offer a discount on weekdays.
A. that B. when
C. if D. why
