Question

New crime prediction software should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of other crimes. Developed by Richard Berk, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, the software has already used in Baltimore and Philadelphia to predict which individuals on probation(缓刑) or parole(假释) are most likely to murder and to be murdered.

“When a person goes on probation or parole he is supervised(监督) by an officer. The question is ‘what level of supervision is appropriate?’” said Berk. It used to be that parole officers used the person’s criminal record, and their judgment to make decisions.

“This research replaces those seat-of-the –pants calculations,” he said.

Technology helps determine level of supervision. On average there is one murder for every 100,000 people. Even among high-risk groups the murder rate is one in 100. Predicting such a rare event is very difficult, but advances in computer technology works.

Years ago, the researchers made a dataset of more than 60,000 various crimes. Using the software they developed, they found some much more likely to commit murder when paroled or probated. They could identify eight future murderers out of 100.

Berk’s software examines roughly two dozen variables(可变因素), from criminal record to geographic location. The type of crimes, and more importantly, the age at which that crime was committed, were two of the most predictive variables.

“People assume that if someone murdered then they will murder in the future,” said Berk. “ What really matters is what that person did as a young individual. Predicting future crimes sounds well. But we aren’t anywhere near being able to do that.”

“Berk’s scientific answer leaves policymakers with difficult questions. By labeling one group of people as high risk, and supervise them closely, there should be fewer murders, which the potential victims should be happy about. It also means that those high-risk individuals will be supervised more aggressively. For human rights advocates, that means punishing people who, most likely, will not commit a crime in the future,” said Bushway. “It comes down to a question of whether you would rather make these errors or those errors.”

1.The underlined words(in Para.3) probably mean___.

A. calculations based on subjective opinions

B. calculations based on widespread voting

C. calculations made by advanced technology

D. calculations based on serious considering

2.For 650 people with crime records, how many potential murderers would the software find?

A. 65.          B. 13.          C. 52.       D. 65.

3.From Para 7, we can infer that______.

A. the technology developed by Richard Berk will soon be widely used in the US

B. the technology would not be widely accepted in the short term

C. whether a person murders or not largely decided by his upbringing while young

D. if a person murdered when he was fifty, he is sure to murder again while on probation

4.Which would be the best title for the passage?

A. Closely Supervise Potential Murders

B. Measures Taken to Prevent Criminal Behavior

C. Technology Revolutionizes Judges’ Way of Working

D. Software is Developed to Predict Criminal Behavior

Answer

1.A

2.C

3.B

4.D

【解析】

试题分析：犯罪的人在被假释或者缓刑后，会不会在犯罪呢？现在有人研发一种新的软件来分析再次犯罪的比例是8%。数据的获得有犯罪人的年龄、地理位置等很多数据的分析。如果这样就可以减少很多的谋杀或犯罪事件的发生的话，那就是爱好和平人士的福音。

1.A 词义推测题。根据It used to be that parole officers used the person’s criminal record, and their judgment to make decisions.可知，在这个软件出现之前，经过通常是通过犯人的个人犯罪记录做出个人判断，这是主观判断的数据，故选A。

2.C 细节理解题。根据第四段They could identify eight future murderers out of 100.可知，650*0.08=52，故选C。

3.B 推理判断题。Predicting future crimes sounds well. But we aren’t anywhere near being able to do that.”的意思是预测犯罪听起来不错，但是我们能做到这一步还很远。故选B。

4.D 主旨大意题。本文在第一段就提出New crime prediction software should reduce not only the murder rate, but the rate of other crimes.，意思是：一个新的犯罪预测软件被研发出来预计可以减少谋杀率，和犯罪率。故选D。

考点：社会类短文阅读。